A new survey produced in partnership with the Duke Department of Economics is offering informed predictions from former Federal Reserve officials and staff on how the central bank may act to impact monetary policy.
The results of the new survey will be released in advance of the March, July, September and December meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy body. The survey will provide advance insight into the Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC’s own forecasts for the economy and the federal funds rate. The survey is conducted by Serpa Pinto Advisory, an economic advisory firm headed by Duke alum Jon Hilsenrath, a former Wall Street Journal economics writer and visiting scholar at Duke, in partnership with the Economics Department.
The results of the first survey were released Monday, March 17, two days before the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting.
“This new collaboration is an opportunity to share with our students a closer look at the factors that impact Federal Reserve decisions and provide new data to deepen their understanding of monetary policy,” said Professor James Roberts, chair of the Department of Economics at Duke. “More broadly, it provides another tool through which members of the media and others tuned into the Federal Reserve’s actions can better anticipate what changes might be coming and what factors are driving those changes.”
The partnership on the survey is part of an effort in recent years by the Department of Economics to present students with a more expansive view of the academic discipline and its applicability.
Part of that effort was the addition of Duke alumna Ellen Meade to the department’s faculty in 2022. Prior to joining Duke, Meade spent 25 years at the Federal Reserve Board, most recently as a special adviser to the Fed Board of Governors and its vice chair, as well as a senior adviser in the Division of Monetary Affairs.
Meade is among the faculty members teaching courses focused on macroeconomic policy issues, including offerings on inflation, monetary policy, and the global financial crisis. Duke now hosts a club that competes in the Federal Reserve’s College Fed Challenge, where undergraduates analyze economic and financial conditions and then formulate a monetary policy recommendation.
In addition, Meade has been organizing and hosting events that bring policy issues to the table and highlight the range of professional options that exist for those majoring in economics. Recent and upcoming events include a panel discussion in February focused on fiscal policy and a March 25 address at Duke by Charles Evans, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Meade said the partnership with Hilsenrath on the survey presents an opportunity for students to participate in analyzing survey responses. The survey asks respondents to provide projections for the change in real GDP, the unemployment rate and inflation over the next few years, while also predicting what the federal funds rate will be. The results provide new data that can be put to use in classes and research.
Each survey also includes several timely questions for respondents to answer. For instance, the March survey asked respondents to describe key adjustments they believe the Fed should make to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy or to its communication tools during the Fed’s ongoing framework review.
Roberts said the partnership on the survey will also elevate Duke’s profile as an institution that is actively exploring and deeply engaging with real-world economic policy.